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Bitcoin Could Narrowly Avoid a Downside Thrust if it Closes Above 100 SMA


Bitcoin is declining steadily and trading below $9,400 against the US Dollar. BTC could decline sharply below $9,250 if it fails to reclaim the 100 hourly simple moving average.

  • Bitcoin is slowly moving lower and now trading well below the $9,500 pivot level.
  • The price is showing a few bearish signs below $9,400 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a crucial declining channel or a bullish flag pattern forming with resistance near $9,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could decline sharply below $9,250 if there is no close above the channel resistance.

Bitcoin Price Sliding Towards $9,250

After forming a short-term top near the $9,500 level, bitcoin price started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. BTC broke the key $9,500 support and pivot zone to start a downside correction.

It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $8,907 low to $9,600 swing high. The bears were able to push the price below the $9,400 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

It seems like there is a crucial declining channel or a bullish flag pattern forming with resistance near $9,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the downside, the first key support is seen near the $9,250 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $8,907 low to $9,600 swing high.

Bitcoin price chart: Source: TradingView.com

Bitcoin is clearly struggling to clear the channel resistance and the 100 hourly SMA to resume its upside above $9,500. Therefore, there is a risk of more losses below the $9,250 support level.

The next major support is near the $9,140 level, below which the price will most likely continue lower towards the $9,000 support level in the near term.

Upside Break in BTC?

If bitcoin manages to clear the channel resistance at $9,400 and the 100 hourly SMA, the bulls are likely to gain strength. The first key resistance is near the $9,500 level, above which the price could revisit the $9,600 swing high.

Any further gains could open the doors for a larger upward move towards the main $10,000 resistance (as discussed using the daily chart).

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well below the 50 level, with a bearish angle.

Major Support Levels – $9,250 followed by $9,080.

Major Resistance Levels – $9,400, $9,500 and $9,800.



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