In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we examine Bitcoin price following the October monthly close and new November candle open.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): November 1, 2022
BTC Cost of Production On Par With 2018 Bear Market
To start, we are looking at the cost to produce each BTC. Bitcoin is now just about on par with the 2018 bear market for the longest time below the cost of production metric. But this also could suggest at least another month of sideways price action.
Bitcoin is below the cost to produce each coin for most miners | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Momentum Is Building Up From Lows
Monthly momentum isn’t turning over as fast as it did during the 2018 bear market, leaving some risk remaining that more lows are possible. If the currently pink histogram closes red again, expect a bigger drop.
Monthly stochastic is also flipping bullish. Past crossovers have pin-pointed previous bottoms, but there won’t be any bull run until the tool rises out of oversold territory.
Will We See A Cyclical Conclusion In The Dollar?
On the left, we have BTCUSD monthly using the Fisher Transform. The statistics-based technical indicator is used to find exact turning points in market cycles. Not only is the monthly Fisher on Bitcoin at a level where its price action bottomed in the past, but each bottom has also recurred cyclically with stunning precision.
To the right, the Dollar Currency Index is showing a topping signal inverse of Bitcoin’s bottoming signal, all while at the most extreme deviation in the entire history of the index on monthly timeframes.
If the DXY pauses or reverses from here, Bitcoin could see a resumption of its bull market. If the dollar finds the momentum to keep climbing, the cryptocurrency market could see new lows.