Trouble for Bitcoin as 3 On-Chain Indicators Point to Potential Sell-Offs

Bitcoin bulls should brace for a bearish impact as three of the leading on-chain indicators unanimously warn about potential sell-offs in the spot market ahead.

CryptoQuant, a South Korea-based blockchain analysis firm, highlighted the latest readings on their proprietary metrics, one of which studies large BTC outflows from miners’ wallets and the other over-the-counter BTC purchases by institutional investors. The third metric keeps a tab of stablecoin deposits across all the cryptocurrency exchanges.

Bitcoin corrects lower after hitting a record high near $42,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The Bearish Trio, Explained

All the said indicators pointed to a brewing bearish bias in the Bitcoin market. For instance, the CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index reached an eight-year high on Tuesday, underscoring that more and more bitcoin producers are moving their rewards to other wallets—probably selling them ever since the BTC/USD exchange rate reached near $42,000.

“This is one of the reasons why I keep my bearish bias,” said Ki-Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin Miners' Position Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin miners hold some of the biggest fresh BTC supply portions before dispatching them to retail markets per demand. When they limit the BTC supply against higher demands, it tends to push the cryptocurrency’s price higher. Similarly, increasing the supply against demand lowers the BTC/USD exchange rate.

And the demand for Bitcoin is dropping in the short-term, shows the other two indicators put forth by CryptoQuant. First, the Coinbase Premium, a crypto cold storage custody service offered by US exchange Coinbase Pro, is turning out lower Bitcoin deposits. That shows a decline in institutional demand.

Bitcoin expects to go bullish should the Coinbase Premium crosses above the 50-mark. Source: CryptoQuant

“We might see green candles in BTC chart, but those wouldn’t come from institutional investors, it’s from crypto native firms,” noted Mr. Ju. “Coinbase Premium looks not enough to break key resistance levels. Without USD spot inflows, no more bull-run.”

Second, the ‘All Stablecoins: All Exchange Reserves’ metric has reached an all-time high on Tuesday. That points to an increase in the total amount of trades from Bitcoin to dollar-pegged tokens like USDT, USDC, BUSD, etc.

Stablecoin reserves across all exchanges hit a record high level. Source: CryptoQuant

Traders use stablecoins—that come with a 1:1 dollar peg—to park their crypto profits/losses without needing to go through mainstream banking channels every time.

Bullish Bitcoin Long-Term

Bitcoin bulls could still walk through the bearish storm based on how 12.6 percent of its supply (2.3 million BTC) moved at a price above $30,000.

Data analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the capital traffic, stating that it may have originated at the end of institutional investors. If true, that provides Bitcoin natural support against aggressive downside attempts below $30,000.

“This is substantial, given that BTC crossed $30k just this year,” tweeted Glassnode. “It suggests investors are injecting capital, and therefore confidence in further price appreciation.”